Işık Ökte'nin hisse yatırım yöntemi (Turkish)

 

1) Doğru sektör seçimi her şeydir! Gayrimenkulde konum/lokasyon neyse, hissede sektör odur; 

2) Hissenin bir hikayesi olmalıdır.. hikayeyi 120 saniye içinde aptal bir adam bile anlayabilmelidir = ne kadar komplike, o kadar kötü; 

3) "Direnci kırdı, al; çift tepeyi açığa sat" teknikleriyle trade ederseniz, analizler kaybetme olasılığınızın %80 olduğunu söyler.. 20 sene back-test edilmiş algoritmanız yoksa kısa vade trade etmeyin; 

4) Hisse nakit portföyünüzün 2/3’ünü en iyi zamanda bile geçmemelidir; 

5) Yatırım en az 1 senelik vadede (bu işleri bana New York’ta öğreten üstadım 3-5 senelik düşünmek lazım derdi) ve portföy çeşitlendirmesi kuralıyla en az 3 birbirinden bağımsız sektörde olmalıdır; 

6) Ana kuralım portföye aldığım hissenin 12 aylık hedef fiyatının mevduat net getirisinin EN AZ 3 katı olmasıdır... bugün %12 net mevduat faizi varsa, %36 altı TL potansiyele portföy riski almam.. 

7) Dünyanın belki en kaliteli hisse analistleri ülkemizde.. lütfen raporları okuyun, GOÜ rasyolarını, hissenin tarihsel iskontolarını inceleyin.. neden AL-SAT; raporlarda bu var! "tüyo" kovalamamak ana felsefeniz olsun...

Most important thing when investing in stocks

    There are many important things but maybe the most of all is to know the business you are investing in. People are in a huge rush to get rich and mostly they spend little time to check the business of the company they are investing in. And mostly they are buying a stock looking only at things like margins, indicators, price trends, etc. It mostly leads to a massive diversification or buying an ETF or basket of ETFs which consequently brings poor performance.

    If you want to make a good investment you need to know the business in details and not only  firm's but also the sector and the market(country, region) in which it operates.

    How I do it? I have a kind of a list in my mind, it looks similar to this below:

• What is the product of the company?
• Is the firm is still managed by it's founder?
• Which are the competitors of the company?
• Does the business depends on a commodity?
• Is there a cyclicality in the sales?
• How is performing the management of the firm?       
• How much the sales are falling or growing in good and bad periods?
• Does the company needs a lot of loans for it's operations?
• When does the company receives the cash? In the case of Walmart it is immediate but most companies receive the cash after months or in pieces.
• Inventory specifications. Like, is it durable? Or, how long could be stored? There are products which could be sold for the same price 3 years after the production. And some as food which will be obsolete in a month.
• If possible visit the company.
• Does the company have products or services with sufficient market potential to make possible a sizable increase in sales for at least several years?

   
    My thoughts about investing are constantly changing. This is what I thing at the end of 2019 after 3 years of investing experience.